Australia’s housing shortage remains the defining force in the market, and RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter put it simply: “If we’ve got a supply shortage, then that’s going to put upward pressure on prices.” Westpac expects the current correction to bottom at around 7%, before national prices return to growth of roughly 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. While investor mortgage applications are down 26% and first home buyer applications are down 30% since the Federal Budget, Westpac CEO Anthony Miller notes that softer demand does not fix the underlying shortfall of homes.

For landlords, new modelling commissioned by four major housing industry bodies suggests changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and SMSF borrowing could see 10,700 fewer new homes commence between 2026-27 and 2029-30, with rents forecast to rise by around $10 per week. Inflation is adding to the pressure, with CommBank analysis showing housing-related costs up 5% annually, including a 5.7% rise in new dwelling construction costs and 3.6% growth in rents. For South East Queensland owners, these conditions point to steady demand for quality rental homes.

There are also early signs of stabilisation. Ray White data shows open home attendance fell from around 4.5 people per inspection in January to about 2.0 in July, but has since edged back to approximately 2.2, with the lift most noticeable in prestige areas. Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee says it is too early to call a broad recovery, although premium buyers are increasingly willing to act when quality homes are appropriately priced. For owners considering a sale this spring, realistic pricing from the outset remains the best way to attract serious buyers.

Johnson Real Estate covers sales and rentals across South East Queensland. Call 1800 SELL SMARTRE, or email sellsmartre@johnsonre.com.au.